ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office

Analytical Notes

A Not-So-Good Morning in Baltimore: What Does Its Port Closure Mean for ASEAN+3 Trade and Supply Chains?

April 11, 2024

Using the IMF-University of Oxford University PortWatch spillover simulator to analyze the impact of the Baltimore accident on ASEAN+3 trade, the note shows that immediate, direct repercussions for the ASEAN+3 region are small, as is the impact on its network of supply chains.

Analytical Notes

How are ASEAN and China Leveraging Their Positions in Global Value Chains?

March 19, 2024

Hongyan Zhao, Yin Fai Ho

This note shows that an economy needs to retain more GVC stages to support the development of domestic firms and increase domestic value-added, and that it should move toward more upstream positions in GVCs to capture a larger share of value-added.

Analytical Notes

Changing Dynamics of Core Inflation in ASEAN+3

February 28, 2024

Andrew Tsang, Catharine Kho, Megan Chong

This note aims to disentangle the supply and demand factors underpinning the dynamics of core inflation in the region in the recent period.

Analytical Notes

Global Tax Reform: What It Means for ASEAN+3 – Progress and Challenges

January 26, 2024

Ravisara Hataiseree

This note provides an update on the significant progress made and discusses the challenges faced by the ASEAN+3 member economies, the United States, and Europe.

Analytical Notes

Has the US–China Trade Conflict Transformed China’s Trading Patterns?

January 12, 2024

Hongyan Zhao

This note analyzes China’s trading patterns of recent years.

Analytical Notes

Prospects for China’s Long-Term Growth amidst Population Aging

December 12, 2023

Fan Zhai, Jae Young Lee

This note examines China’s long-term growth prospects within the dynamics of its rapid demographic transition.

Analytical Notes

Much Ado About Nothing? Cryptocurrency Spillovers to ASEAN+3 Equity Markets and Financial Sectors

November 24, 2023

Jorge Antonio Chan-Lau, Toàn Long Quách

Cryptocurrency adoption in emerging markets, especially the ASEAN+3 region, has been strong at both institutional and retail levels.

Analytical Notes

Vietnam Trip Notes: The Next Global FDI and Supply Chain Hub?

November 10, 2023

Diana del Rosario, Hongyan Zhao

This next issue in the Trade Wind Series presents the key takeaways from staff’s discussions in Vietnam, which is that the country has the potential to become a global FDI and supply chain hub if appropriate measures and structural reforms are undertaken.

Analytical Notes

The RISK from China’s Property Sector

September 19, 2023

Catharine Kho, Jorge Antonio Chan-Lau, Li Lian Ong, Michael Wynn, Min Wei, Toàn Long Quách, Yin Fai Ho

In this note, we introduce AMRO’s Risk Identification and Signalling Kickoff (RISK) exercise, aimed at assessing systemic risks to the ASEAN+3 region.

Analytical Notes

Has the Shifting Trade Landscape Changed the China–ASEAN Nexus?

September 11, 2023

Hongyan Zhao, Yin Fai Ho

This issue analyzes China’s and ASEAN’s trade performance to assess (1) if their respective contributions have materially changed; and (2) China’s changing comparative advantage across sectors and how the rest of the region may be adjusting to benefit from it.

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