Vietnam’s economy is estimated to grow by 6.5 percent in 20251, after posting a strong 7.0 percent growth in 2024. Despite potential headwinds from heightened US trade protectionism, growth is projected to be supported by improving domestic demand and frontloaded external orders. To sustain this momentum, an appropriate policy mix is essential to promote growth while safeguarding financial stability.
Despite being hit by Super Typhoon Yagi, the Vietnamese economy continued to gain momentum in 2024, driven by robust external demand. The recovery was led by manufacturing exports, a rebound in the hospitality sector, and steady inflows of FDI. However, household spending and private investment by domestic firms remained stagnant.
In 2025, external demand is projected to remain strong in the first half of the year due to frontloaded orders ahead of the potential increases in US tariffs. Local demand is expected to improve, while public investment would be expedited before the next Vietnam Presidential election in early 2026.
1AMRO’s projection of growth for 2025 was revised down to 6.5 percent in January 2025 from the previous 6.7 percent which was done late 2024 and shown in the Annual Consultation Report. The revised projection reflected recent developments in the Vietnamese economy and the global economy.