As China continues to fight and respond to the virus, its growth rate is expected to be lowered by as much as 0.5 percentage points, according to AMRO’s latest research. The marked slowdown in growth would be due to the strain on the nation’s healthcare system and the loss of productivity from absenteeism at workplaces. Public fear of infection could also disrupt transportation, the manufacturing supply chain, as well as provision of services.

AMRO projects that the escalation of the virus outbreak and slowdown in China would result in a deduction of 0.4* percentage point from ASEAN+3 growth. The regional economy will be impacted by (1) a sharp drop in Chinese outbound travel and tourism, (2) a drop in regional travel and tourism, (3) a decline in China’s imports through the supply chain, and (4) the transmission of the virus to regional economies.

Note: This figure is updated on February 18, 2020.

Authors: Anne Oeking, Prashant Pande, Simon Liu