Since 2021, inflation in ASEAN+3 economies surged to multi-year highs and despite the moderation in the more recent period, remained elevated. Global and regional inflation faced multiple supply shocks, including pandemic-related demand shifts from services to goods, global supply chain disruptions, and labor supply shortages. Inflation was consequently expected to be transitory and moderate when these disruptions and shortages ease as economies reopen after the pandemic. The post-pandemic reopening also led to demand recovery which placed some upward pressure on inflation. Today, inflation remains above long-term average for most economies despite lower global commodity prices and policy interest rates having returned or even exceeded pre-pandemic levels for most economies.
Analytical Notes