The ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) provides a comprehensive assessment of recent developments and the outlook for the region, taking into account spillovers from the global economy and inter-linkages in international financial markets. It also presents staff’s thematic study on longer-term structural issues confronting the region.
The first part, on “Macroeconomic Prospects and Challenges,” contains AMRO staff’s regional outlook and assessment. Following growth of 5.3 percent in 2018, staff expect the region to remain resilient against trade headwinds and to achieve growth of about 5.1 percent in 2019-2020. This section also includes AMRO’s Global Risk Map, which summarizes staff’s view on the key external risks to the ASEAN+3 region, including their likelihood, imminence and impact. Simulations of adverse trade scenarios inform staff’s assessment of the impact of a further escalation in the global trade tension. Analyses of each economy’s positions in the business, credit and property cycles also serve as inputs into staff’s monetary, fiscal and macroprudential policy recommendations.
The second part comprises this year’s thematic study, “Building Connectivity and Capacity for the New Economy.” This section discusses the key drivers that will shape the development priorities of the ASEAN+3 region as they embrace the “new economy” and embark on the next phase of the region’s growth trajectory. It also identifies the challenges to achieving those objectives, which would require leveraging on intra-ASEAN+3 investment, backstopped by a credible regional financial safety net, and developing the necessary professional expertise, technology and institutions.