The ASEAN+3 region has been well-equipped with various policy tools to help member economies weather the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Significant policy cushions and financial reserves built up over the years have allowed member economies to implement support measures of unprecedented size and scale. As the pandemic becomes more manageable, smooth and orderly withdrawals from support policies will become a priority—any premature, disorderly, or miscommunicated exit risks delaying or derailing post-pandemic recovery or worse, triggering systemic financial distress.

This paper proposes a “vulnerability to exit risks” framework, based on seven key metrics that broadly capture conjunctural and structural considerations, and assesses when ASEAN+3 economies could potentially start to unwind pandemic support. The framework also helps to identify areas where improvements could strengthen economic resilience going forward.

Authors: Anne Oeking, Catharine Kho, Chiang Yong (Edmond) Choo, Diana del Rosario, Li Lian Ong, Marthe M. Hinojales, Vanne Khut