Global supply shocks generate stagflationary pressures and pose difficult tradeoffs for monetary policy. This working paper studies how central banks respond to such shocks using panel and country-level structural vector-autoregressions (VARs) for eight ASEAN+3 economies over 1970–2024. By employing a broad set of global supply shock measures, it documents three main findings. First, monetary policy tightens on average following adverse global supply shocks despite their contractionary effects on output. Second, policy responses have shifted over time, from more accommodative responses before 1999 to more systematic tightening in the post-1999 inflation-targeting era. Third, policy responses vary significantly across different measures of global supply shocks. Central banks react most strongly to oil-price shocks, supply-chain disruptions, and energy- and food-shortage shocks, which generate broad-based and persistent inflationary pressures, while responses are substantially weaker—or even accommodative—for shocks associated with geopolitical risk, shipping costs, and industrial-shortage and labor-shortage measures.
