The recent banking stresses have clearly triggered a sharp increase in risk aversion. While the initial reaction of ASEAN+3 markets has been more muted compared with those in US and European markets, volatilities in the markets remain high. Our network analysis suggests that while the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)’s top contagion interconnections are concentrated in the US, CS appears to have more interconnected nodes with financial institutions in the ASEAN+3 economies, including banks and insurance companies from China, the Philippines, Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Hong Kong. Thus far, we do not envisage an imminent systemic financial crisis thanks to swift actions by the authorities in the US and Switzerland, which have curbed the spillovers and provided some support to the markets. In addition, banks in the region and elsewhere have built up significant buffers including robust liquidity, capital and funding standards, following the implementation of stricter global banking regulatory standards since the Global Financial Crisis. That said, the risk of second and third order effects on regional banks could not be ruled out, especially if the situation around Credit Suisse, which is a global systemically important bank, worsens.
Market Insights