ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office

Events

8th Joint Regional Financing Arrangements (RFAs) Research Seminar

Date & Time:

May 16, 2024, 3:00 PM Singapore / 9:00 AM Luxembourg

Join us for the 8th Joint Regional Financing Arrangements (RFA) Research Seminar, an annual event dedicated to fostering discussions on topics crucial for crisis prevention and resolution, the core mandates of the RFAs. This seminar, initiated in 2017 by AMRO, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), and the Latin American Reserve Fund (FLAR), brings together academics, policymakers, economists from central banks and finance ministries, as well as representatives from RFAs, the IMF, and other IFIs.

The theme of the 2024 edition is Safeguarding stability in a more fragmented world: global and regional perspectives on challenges and policy implications. The seminar will comprehensively examine the myriad risks associated with global fragmentation, with a particular focus on its geopolitical, economic, and financial stability dimensions. In an increasingly interconnected world, fragmentation poses significant risks to economies on both a global and regional scale. Our event will provide a platform for experts, policymakers, and academics to delve into the emerging paradigm of multipolarity. Through in-depth discussions and the exchange of insights, attendees will develop a deeper understanding of the challenges presented by global fragmentation, as well as collaborative strategies to bolster both global and regional resilience and uphold financial stability, a core objective within RFAs’ mandates.

We look forward to your participation in this insightful seminar.

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Program

Time

Program

* All times below refer to Luxembourg time (UTC+2)

9:00 AM – 9:10 AM

Introductory Remarks

Pierre GRAMEGNA, Managing Director, European Stability Mechanism

9:10 AM – 9:30 AM

Opening Presentation

Geoeconomic Fragmentation: Shaping the Future of Globalization and The Resilience of the Global Financial Safety Net

Anna ILYINA, Assistant Director, SPR, International Monetary Fund

9:30 AM – 10:45 AM

Session 1: Measuring and detecting risks of global fragmentation

Chair: Hoe Ee KHOR, Chief Economist – ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office

Papers to be presented:

Measuring Globalization: Framework, Analysis, and Implications

Rolando AVENDANO, Economist, Economic Research and Development Impact Department, Asian Development Bank

The Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts on Trade, Growth, and Innovation

Eddy BEKKERS, Research Economist, World Trade Organization

Fireside chat:

Angela CAPOLONGO, Economist, ESM
Sebastian FRANCO-BEDOYA, Economist, Macroeconomics, Trade, and Investment Global Practice, LAC region, The World Bank

Q&A Session

10:45 AM – 11:15 AM

Break

11:15 AM – 12:45 PM

Session 2: Navigating Through an Increasingly Fragmented World: Regional Viewpoints on Trade and the Risks of Fragmentation

Chair: Rolf STRAUCH, Chief Economist – European Stability Mechanism

Papers to be presented:

Do Geopolitical Risks Impact Trade Patterns in Latin America?

Vikkram SINGH, Assistant Professor, Global Management Studies program, Ted Rogers School of Management, Toronto University

Macroeconomic & Financial Implications of Global Fragmentation: Perspectives from the ASEAN+3 and Euro Area Regions

Hongyan ZHAO, Senior Economist, AMRO

Global Trade Fragmentation. An EU Perspective

José RAMÓN PEREA, Economic Analyst, Global Economy Unit, European Commission & Lucile COLLIN, Economic Analyst, Desk officer for G7, G20 and IMF, European Commission

Fireside chat:

Iader GIRALDO, Principal Economic Researcher, FLAR
Julia NIELSON, Deputy Director, Trade, OECD

Q&A Session

12:45 PM – 2:00 PM

Break

2:00 PM – 3:30 PM

Session 3: Financial Implications of Fragmentation: Capital Flows, Sovereign Funding Cost and Debt Challenges

Chair: Carlos GIRALDO, Chief Economist – Latin American Reserve Fund

Papers to be presented:

Geo-economic Fragmentation: Economic and Financial Stability Implications

Ralph VERHOEKS, Financial Stability Economist, De Nederlandsche Bank

Preventing Sudden Stops in Net Capital Flows

Eduardo CAVALLO, Inter-American Development Bank

Financial implications of fragmentation: an European perspective

Yasin MIMIR, Senior Economist, ESM

Fireside chat:

Li Lian ONG, Senior Advisor to the Director, Macro-Financial Research Group, AMRO
Mahmood PRADHAN, Global Head of Macro, Amundi Asset Management

Q&A Session

3:30 PM – 3:45 PM

Break

3:45 PM – 5:00 PM

Policy Experts Roundtable – ‘What Lies Ahead in a More Fragmented World? Strategies, Policies, and the Role of Global Cooperation in Mitigating Risks’

Chair: Nicola GIAMMARIOLI, Secretary General and Management Board Member, ESM

Policy experts:

Maher HASAN, Chief Economist, Arab Monetary Fund
Gerardo ZUÑIGA, Director of International Affairs, Central Bank of Mexico
Anna ILYINA, Assistant Director, SPR, International Monetary Fund
Maria DEMERTZIS, Deputy Director, Bruegel
Dr. PARJIONO, Assistant to the Minister for Macroeconomics and International Finance Affairs, Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia

5:15 PM – 5:30 PM

Closing Keynote speech