AGENDA FOR MAY 17 (TUESDAY)

7:45 PM – 8:05 PM

Opening ceremony

Welcome Remarks by the RFA Heads (Toshinori Doi, Director, AMRO; Klaus Regling, Managing Director, ESM; José Darío Uribe, Executive President, FLAR)

Remarks by the G20 Indonesia Presidency (Governor Perry Warjiyo, Bank Indonesia)

Session I: Monetary Policy Normalization after the Pandemic and its Impact on Capital Flows

In January 2022, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) released its plans related to policy normalization. As recent history has shown, financial markets’ overreaction to Fed’s actions may lead to heightened volatility in the market. Less accommodative monetary policies in AEs are expected to pose challenges for EMEs, as higher returns elsewhere will incentivize capital to flow overseas, putting downward pressure on currencies and raising inflation.

During this Session, our distinguished speakers will share their views on the prospects of accelerated monetary policy normalization and possible spillover effects to EMEs, considerations for monetary policy stance of EMEs to support their economic recovery and thoughts on how the recent geopolitical and energy related developments could affect policy prospects of AEs. We will also hear recommendations on how countries may be able to navigate a tightening monetary cycle and how macroeconomic policies may be calibrated to individual country circumstances. The speakers may also discuss the importance of international cooperation to minimize stress during the forthcoming tightening cycle and its role in ensuring ready access to liquidity support and buffer against the international amplification of eminent risks.

8:05 PM – 8:20 PM

Keynote Remarks

Stijn Claessens, Deputy Head of Monetary and Economic Department, Bank for International Settlements

8:20 PM – 9:00 PM

Panel Discussion

Chair: Rolf Strauch, Chief Economist, ESM

Discussants:
1. Asia – Zeno R. Abenoja, Managing Director, Department of Economic Research, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

2. Latin America – Adrián Armas, Chief Economist, Central Bank of Peru

9:00 PM – 9:30 PM

Q&A with audience and closing remarks by the Chair

AGENDA FOR MAY 18 (WEDNESDAY)

Session II: The Role of Capital Flow Management Measures (CFMs) in Addressing Capital Flow Volatility

The use of CFMs have been controversial. The IMF defines CFMs as measures that are designed to limit capital flows and reduce systemic financial risks stemming from them. These can include administrative and price-based restrictions on capital flows, for instance, bans, limits, taxes, and reserve requirements. The resumption of capital flows into the region in the aftermath of the global financial crisis has reignited the debate on their impact on financial stability and economic growth. The OECD Code of Liberalization of Capital Movements promotes liberalization of the full range of international capital movements between residents of adhering economies. The G20 concluded that CFMs may constitute part of a broader policy approach to protect an economy from shocks . Broadly, the IMF, in its Institutional View recommends that CFMs should not be used to substitute for or avoid necessary macroeconomic adjustment but may be useful for supporting macroeconomic adjustment and safeguarding against systemic risks. The review preserves the core principles of the Institutional View, however, it offers additional guidance to make assessments that play an important role in the implementation of capital flow policies, such as the assessment of macro-criticality, and the identification of capital inflow surges, imminent crises, and premature liberalization.

These issues are important considerations in the RFAs’ objectives to contribute to the macroeconomic stability of the region, promoting the adoption of sound macroeconomic and financial policies, and conduct of macroeconomic and financial surveillance to prevent financial crises through the early detection of risks and vulnerabilities in member economies and the swift implementation of remedial policy actions.

During the session, the keynote presentation from the IMF will provide its recent policy discussion on capital flow management measures and how “pre-emptive” CFM can reduce EMEs’ external finance premia during risk-off shocks. Other speakers will also weigh in on the debate on the changing views on the use of CFMs. In particular, the AMRO will present on its position paper on whether the use of CFMs/MPMs may be justified for the ASEAN+3 region.

8:00 PM – 8:20 PM

Keynote Remarks

Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Deputy Director, Strategy, Policy and Review Department, IMF

8:20 PM – 9:10 PM

Panel Discussion

Chair: Khor Hoe Ee, Chief Economist, AMRO

Discussants:
1. Toshinori Doi, Director, AMRO

2. Carmine Di Noia, Director, Directorate for Financial and Enterprise Affairs, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

3. Norhana Endut, Assistant Governor, Bank Negara Malaysia

4. Jose Antonio Ocampo, Professor, School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University

9:10 PM – 9:40 PM

Q&A with audience and closing remarks by the Chair and G20

International Financial Architecture Working Group (IFA WG) Co-chair
Byungsik Jung, Deputy Director General, Ministry of Economy and Finance and G20 IFA Working Group Korean co-chair

9:40 PM – 9:45 PM

Remarks by next seminar host

Carlos Giraldo, Chief Economist, FLAR