The disaster at the Port of Baltimore in the early hours of Tuesday, March 26, which resulted in its closure for the foreseeable future, has raised concerns over disruptions to global trade and supply chains. Baltimore is among the top 20 ports in the US by tonnage and number containers handled, including goods that are important to the ASEAN+3 region, such as vehicles and machinery, coal, and other dry bulk cargo. Using the IMF-University of Oxford University PortWatch spillover simulator to analyze the impact of the Baltimore accident on ASEAN+3 trade, the note shows that immediate, direct repercussions for the ASEAN+3 region are small, as is the impact on its network of supply chains. However, the full extent of spillovers over time remains unknown, given the indefinite closure of Baltimore’s port. With cargo destined for Baltimore being diverted to other large ports along the US East Coast, which are already being used for ASEAN+3 trade, any eventual congestion and delay could have much larger flow-on effects for economies in this region.
Analytical Notes