In this January 2023 quarterly update, AMRO revised downwards its short-term growth forecast for the ASEAN+3 region. Deteriorating global economic conditions are weighing on the region’s outlook, but China’s reopening last December should provide some counterbalance.

AMRO estimates ASEAN+3 growth for 2022 to come in at 3.3 percent— down from the 3.7 percent growth forecast in October. This is due mainly to continuing weakness in Plus-3 economies, especially China where growth has turned out to be much weaker. Growth in the ASEAN region, buoyed by strong domestic demand, is revised upwards to 5.6 percent. This year, growth in the ASEAN+3 region is projected to strengthen to 4.3 percent, as China’s economy is expected to rebound strongly reflecting the removal of containment measures and reopening of its economy. Inflation is anticipated to come down to 4.5 percent in 2023 from the projected 6.3 percent spike last year.