SINGAPORE, June 16, 2026 – AMRO today released the inaugural ASEAN+3 Quarterly Fiscal Bulletin, a quarterly update to the ASEAN+3 Fiscal Policy Report (AFPR). The bulletin finds that the region’s fiscal position remained broadly resilient in the first quarter of 2026, despite emerging expenditure pressures and tighter financing conditions following the escalation of the Middle East conflict.
First-quarter revenue outturns remained generally robust across the region, with most economies recording positive year-to-date revenue growth, supported by strong income and consumption-based tax collections. However, resource-related revenues declined among oil exporters, suggesting that the revenue benefits of higher commodity prices have yet to materialize fully. Meanwhile, expenditure pressures have begun to build, particularly in economies with broad-based fuel subsidy regimes, while regional 10-year government bond yields rose after the outbreak of the conflict in February 2026.
“ASEAN+3 public finances remained resilient in the first quarter. However, early signs of stress are beginning to emerge,” said AMRO Deputy Director Abdurohman (Functional Surveillance and Research). “Higher energy and subsidy costs, together with the fiscal costs of recently introduced policy measures, are expected to weigh on fiscal positions. At the same time, tighter financing conditions are increasing downside risks to the fiscal outlook. The fiscal impact is expected to become more evident in the second-quarter fiscal outturns.”
Fiscal measures have been at the core of ASEAN+3 governments’ responses to the conflict. Since its onset, a total of 59 direct fiscal measures and 15 quasi-fiscal measures have been introduced, with all economies implementing at least one measure. Support has focused primarily on containing the pass-through of higher energy prices, easing cost-of-living pressures, and supporting sectors most affected by higher fuel and input costs.
Most economies have relied on existing fuel subsidies and price stabilization mechanisms to limit the full pass-through of higher energy costs. More than two-thirds of the measures are open-ended and have no pre-specified end date, raising the risk of mounting and persistent fiscal costs should the shock prove prolonged.
“Fiscal support across the region has been timely and responsive, but as conditions evolve, policies need to be carefully recalibrated to balance near-term support with medium-term fiscal sustainability,” Abdurohman added. “Member authorities should prioritize well-targeted and temporary measures. Clear communication and credible medium-term fiscal strategies will be essential to anchor expectations and contain rising fiscal risks.”
Further details are available in the June 2026 edition of the Quarterly Fiscal Bulletin. The next update is scheduled for release in September 2026.
About AMRO
AMRO is an international organization established to support macroeconomic resilience and financial stability of the ASEAN+3 region, comprising members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China; Hong Kong, China; Japan; and Korea. AMRO’s mandate is to conduct macroeconomic surveillance, support regional financial arrangements, and provide technical assistance to the members. AMRO also serves as a regional knowledge hub and provides support to ASEAN+3 financial cooperation.