Credit risks posed by ASEAN+3 non-financial corporate (NFC) sectors have risen. NFC debt as a percentage of GDP has increased from pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels albeit down from its pandemic peak. These risks are expected to persist as the region’s central banks continue to confront inflationary pressures by raising policy rates. Meanwhile, any manifestation of downside risks to economic growth—amid tight global financial conditions and intensifying geopolitical crises—could hit firm earnings, while inducing greater risk aversion among lenders. Micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), which bore the brunt of the pandemic, remain most vulnerable. Both the interest coverage ratio and debt service ratio are employed in empirical analyses of the debt-at-risk of publicly-listed and privately-held firms across industries, focusing in particular on MSMEs and incorporating forward-looking scenario analyses. Policy measures to support viable firms and industries are proposed. The availability of information to conduct this study and corresponding data gaps are assessed and recommendations for improvements to facilitate future surveillance of the sector are offered.
Policy Position Papers