This paper embeds the option value of waiting into a standard monetary policy framework to analyze optimal monetary policy under disturbance uncertainty. Under high uncertainty, especially when shocks are assessed to be transitory or carry high trade-offs, there is an option value of waiting. In this paper, a threshold rule is derived to formalize this trade-off, determining when the benefits of acting outweigh the option value of waiting for more information. If shocks are assessed to be persistent, there is a case for front-loading policy actions instead of waiting. The risk of hitting the effective lower bound reduces the option value of waiting. State-contingent communication dominates rigid commitments under high uncertainty.
