The 3rd Joint Regional Financing Arrangement (RFA) Research Seminar

Location: 8 Rue du Château, 6162 Bourglinster, Luxembourg

The 3rd Joint Regional Financing Arrangement (RFA) Research Seminar co-organized by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO), the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), and the Fondo Latinoamericano de Reservas (FLAR), will be held on May 16 and 17, 2019 in Luxembourg. The seminar is an annual event aiming at bringing academics and institutions together to discuss key issues pertaining to global and regional financial stability.

Given heightened global risks related to trade tensions, geopolitical challenges, and economic and market uncertainties, this year our research seminar will focus on detecting, analysing, preventing, and tackling sovereign risks and how the Global Financial Safety Net, in particular its regional line of defence, can provide enhanced support.

Mr Klaus Regling, Managing Director of European Stability Mechanism (ESM), and Mr José Darío Uribe, Executive President of Fondo Latinoamericano de Reservas (FLAR), will make the introductory remarks. Mr Yasuto Watanabe, AMRO Deputy Director, will make the closing remarks. The event comprises two academic sessions and a roundtable. AMRO Chief Economist Dr Hoe Ee Khor will chair the first academic session themed “Diagnose current global sovereign risks”, while Dr Li Lian Ong, AMRO Lead Specialist and Group Head (Surveillance) will speak about the Economic Review and Policy Dialogue (ERPD) Scorecard and ARTEMIS as effective risk detection tools.

The audience will be a mix of academics, economists from central banks and finance ministries, representatives from RFAs, the IMF, and other institutions.

The event is by invitation only.

Program

Time
Program

MAY 16, 2019 (THURSDAY)

8:30 – 9:00

Registration and welcome coffee

9:00 – 9:15

Introductory Remarks
Klaus Regling, Managing Director – European Stability Mechanism

José Darío Uribe, Executive President – Latin American Reserve Fund

9:15 – 12:30

Academic Session 1: Diagnose current global sovereign risks
Chair: Hoe Ee Khor, Chief Economist – ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office

9:15 – 9:45

Galina Hale, Research Advisor – Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
The euro crisis in the mirror of the European Monetary System

9:45 – 10:15

Ilhyock Shim, Head of Economics and Financial Markets for Asia and the Pacific – Bank for International Settlements
Financial stress in lender countries and capital outflows from emerging market economies

10:15 – 10:45

Coffee break

10:45 – 11:15

Moritz Kraemer, Chief Economic Advisor – Acreditus
Why sovereigns default?

11:15 – 11:45

Discussant: Gong Cheng, Senior Economist – European Stability Mechanism

11:45 – 12:30

Q&A

12:30 – 14:00

Photo Session and Lunch

14:00 – 17:15

Academic Session 2: How to shape effective risk detection tools?
Chair: Nicola Giammarioli, Head of Strategy and Institutional Relations – European Stability Mechanism

14:00 – 14:30

Phakawa Jeasakul and Romain Lafarguette, Economists – International Monetary Fund
Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance

14:30 – 15:00

Jan Hannes Lang, Financial Stability Expert – European Central Bank
Anticipating the bust: a new cyclical systemic risk indicator to assess the likelihood and severity of financial crises

15:00 – 15:15

Coffee break

15:15 – 15:45

Li Lian Ong, Group Head Financial Surveillance – ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office
The ERPD Matrix Scorecard and ARTEMIS

15:45 – 16:15

Discussant: Dennis Essers, Economist – National Bank of Belgium

16:15 – 17:00

Q&A

17:00 – 17:15

Closing Keynote
Randall Henning, Professor at the School of International Service – American University

MAY 17, 2019 (FRIDAY)

9:00 – 9:30

Arrival and welcome coffee

9:30 – 10:00

Keynote speech
Erik Berglöf, Director of the Institute of Global Affairs – London School of Economics

10:00 – 12:15

Roundtable: Are the Global Financial Safety Net and crisis management institutions prepared
to early detect risks and fight against the next crisis? Chair: Rolf Strauch, Chief Economist – European Stability Mechanism PetyaDiscussants: Koeva Brooks, Deputy Director, Strategy, Policy, and Review Department – International Monetary FundCarlos Giraldo, Chief Economist – Latin American Reserve Fund Barbara Fritz, Professor at the Institute for
Latin American Studies / School of Business & Economics – Freie Universität BerlinMasahiro Kawai, Professor – University of TokyoBenoît Mojon, Head of Economic Analysis – Bank for International SettlementsHeinz Scherrer, Head of Unit, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs – European CommissionEvgeny Y. Vinokurov, Chief Economist – Eurasian Fund for Stabilisation and Development

12:15 – 12:20

Closing Remarks
Yasuto Watanabe, Deputy Director – ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office

Speakers

Klaus Regling

Managing Director – European Stability Mechanism

José Darío Uribe

Executive President – Latin American Reserve Fund

Hoe Ee Khor

Chief Economist – ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office

Galina Hale

Research Advisor – Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Ilhyock Shim

Head of Economics and Financial Markets for Asia and the Pacific – Bank for International Settlements

Moritz Kraemer

Chief Economic Advisor – Acreditus

Gong Cheng

Senior Economist – European Stability Mechanism

Nicola Giammarioli

Head of Strategy and Institutional Relations – European Stability Mechanism

Phakawa Jeasakul

Economists – International Monetary Fund

Romain Lafarguette

Economists – International Monetary Fund

Jan Hannes Lang

Financial Stability Expert – European Central Bank

Li Lian Ong

Group Head Financial Surveillance – ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office

Dennis Essers

Economist – National Bank of Belgium

Randall Henning

Professor at the School of International Service – American University

Erik Berglöf,

Director of the Institute of Global Affairs – London School of Economics

Yasuto Watanabe

Deputy Director – ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office

Photos