This working paper explores the impact of various risk factors on Hong Kong, China’s economy, which is substantially reliant on the global economy and mainland China. To address these issues, the paper identifies a range of risk factors such as China’s economic slowdown, prolonged property market adjustments, and escalating trade policy uncertainty. These factors are critical in shaping Hong Kong’s economic landscape. Following the identification of risks, the paper employs a Large Bayesian Vector Autoregression (LBVAR) model, utilizing 21 macroeconomic variables to generate a medium-term economic outlook for the economy. This paper is distinctive as it represents the first quantitative analysis that maps each risk factor’s impact on Hong Kong’s economy, as reported in AMRO’s Annual Consultation Report.