AMRO’s 2018 Annual Consultation Report on Myanmar

Myanmar’s economy was on a gradual recovery path in Fiscal Year (FY) 2017/18 driven by expanding public spending and exports, after slowing down in the previous year. Inflation moderated further mainly due to lower food inflation, while core inflation started to pick up in the later part of the fiscal year. On the external front, the trade deficit improved in FY2017/18 on the back of stronger export growth and the foreign reserves increased modestly from the previous year. The risks to growth emanate mainly from ongoing ethnic tensions in Rakhine State and uncertainties in the global environment related to trade and energy prices. Exchange rate pressure and weather conditions that lead to supply-side disruptions will continue to be key sources of inflation uncertainty. Going forward, enhancing tax revenue and containing current expenditure are critical to strengthening the fiscal position. The implementation of new banking regulations will enhance the soundness and resilience of the financial system and contribute to developing a healthier banking sector over the medium term.

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