ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office

Events

7th Joint Regional Financing Arrangements (RFAs) Research Seminar

Date & Time:

May 25-26, 2023, 9:00 PM Singapore / 8:00 AM Bogota / 3:00 PM Luxembourg

Contact: By invitation only

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO), the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), and the Latin American Reserve Fund (FLAR) initiated this annual joint research seminar series in 2017. The event brings together scholars, policymakers, economists from central banks and finance ministries, as well as representatives from regional financing arrangements (RFAs), the IMF and other IFIs. It seeks to encourage discussion on issues related to RFA mandates, such as the effectiveness of providing liquidity during times of crises, early warning systems and sovereign risks, as well as on broader regional and global economic developments and challenges.

Over the past decade, public debt has risen significantly worldwide following adverse shocks – namely the global financial crisis and the pandemic – and against the backdrop of accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies that enabled governments to borrow at a low cost. However, recent interest rates hikes, coupled with ongoing high inflation, pose new challenges to debt sustainability and fiscal policy. Moreover, continued weak growth by historical standards may make it more difficult in some cases to achieve fiscal consolidation and stabilization. Meanwhile, longer-term trends such as climate change and aging populations add further pressure on budgets, including due to higher investment needs, and can negatively affect growth. This underscores the need to have balance between tax revenues and public expenditures to safeguard long-term fiscal sustainability.

This seminar addresses debt sustainability and fiscal policy issues from three viewpoints. The first session will consist of a dialogue between officials from regional institutions with a prominent academic expert on the implications of inter alia higher interest rates and inflation for debt sustainability analysis. The second session will aim at obtaining a deeper understanding of debt and fiscal challenges and policy priorities going forward, globally and across different regions. The last session will examine how the international community and regional partners can help countries navigate such challenges and advance reforms that reduce debt vulnerabilities and make economies greener, more resilient, and inclusive.

Program

Time

Program

AGENDA FOR MAY 25 (THURSDAY)

* All times below refer to Cartagena time (GMT-5)

Session I: Dialogue on Public Debt Sustainability Analysis in a High interest Rate and High Inflation Environment

Possible issues to consider include how to analyse debt sustainability in the current conjecture? How to analyse debt sustainability in developed vs developing and emerging economies? How to deal with the great uncertainty in economic projections?

8:00 AM – 8:05 AM

Welcome Opening ceremony
José Darío Uribe, Executive President, FLAR

8:05 AM – 9:50 AM

Chair: Carlos Giraldo, Chief Economist, FLAR
Keynote Speech

Ugo Panizza, Professor of Economics, Geneva Graduate Institute

Panel discussion

Óscar Valencia, Lead Specialist, Fiscal and Municipal Management Division, Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)
Giovanni Callegari, Head of Economic Risk Analysis, ESM
Byunghoon Nam, Senior Economist, AMRO
Q&A session and Chair’s closing remarks

9:50 AM – 10:10 AM

Break

Session II: Policy Exchange on Debt and Fiscal Challenges and Priorities

Possible issues to consider include: What are the main policy implications of a high debt and high interest rate environment? How to incorporate climate change into the long-term fiscal policy outlook? Is there a new paradigm for the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies? What are the main challenges for fiscal consolidation in the context of the ongoing cost-of-living crisis that many countries face? What are the main challenges for future fiscal consolidation?

10:10 AM – 11:55 AM

Chair: Marialena Athanasopoulou, Deputy Head of the Economic Risk Analysis, ESM
Keynote Speech

Paolo Mauro, Deputy Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF

Panel discussion

Febrio Nathan Kacaribu, Chairman, Fiscal Policy Agency, Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia
Rodrigo Mariscal, Chief Economist, Finance Ministry of Mexico
Chloé Bellec, Senior Policy Officer, European Commission
Grégory Claeys, Senior Fellow, Bruegel
Q&A session and Chair’s closing remarks

AGENDA FOR MAY 26 (FRIDAY)

Session III: The Role of the International Community and Regional Partners in Supporting Debt Sustainability and Management of Fiscal Challenges

Possible issues to consider include: How can multilateral and regional organizations contribute toward public debt sustainability? How can the global community help to increase debt level transparency to understand the actual magnitude of global debt risk? How can multilateral organizations contribute to better incorporate long-term trends such as climate change into the fiscal sustainability framework?

8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Chair: Luke Hong, Lead Economist, AMRO
Keynote Speech

Richard Martínez, Vice President for Countries, IDB

Panel discussion

Representative from the Ministry of Finance of the Lao PDR (TBC)
Adriana Arreaza, Director of Macroeconomic Studies, Latin American Development Bank (CAF)
Marialuz Moreno Badia, Deputy Division Chief Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, IMF
Q&A session and Chair’s closing remarks

10:00 AM – 10:05 AM

Closing Remarks
Fidel Jaramillo, General Secretary, FLAR

Speakers

Carlos Giraldo

Chief Economist, FLAR

Marialena Athanasopoulou

Deputy Head of the Economic Risk Analysis, ESM

Luke Hong

Lead Economist, AMRO

Ugo Panizza

Professor of Economics, The Graduate Institute, Geneva, Switzerland

Paolo Mauro

Deputy Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF

Richard Martínez

Vice President for Countries, Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)

Parjiono

Assistant to Minister of Finance for Macro Economy and International Finance, Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia

Marialuz Moreno Badia

Deputy Division Chief, IMF

Chloé Bellec

Senior Policy Officer, G7 / G20

Grégory Claeys

Senior Fellow, Bruegel

Adriana Arreaza

Director of Macroeconomic Studies, CAF

Oscar Valencia

Lead Specialist, Fiscal and Municipal Management Division, IDB

Byunghoon Nam

Senior Economist, AMRO

Rodrigo Mariscal

Chief Economist, Finance Ministry of Mexico

Giovanni Callegari

Head of Economic Risk Analysis, ESM

Resources

Press Releases

7th Joint Regional Financing Arrangements Research Seminar: Public Debt Sustainability and Fiscal Challenges in Times of Tighter Financial Conditions

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