The Global Risk Map summarizes staff’s view on the key external risks to the ASEAN+3 region, including their likelihood, imminence and impact. The risk of an escalation in trade protectionism remains unchanged, given the reported progress in the ongoing negotiations, but if it were to happen, the impact would be significant. We have raised the likelihood of G3 growth falling short of expectations from the dampening effects of idiosyncratic factors, such as the dissipating benefits from fiscal stimulus in the United States, the drag from the new emission standards law in Germany, uncertainties over a possible cliff-edged Brexit and negative impact from Japan’s planned consumption tax hike.

Read More