MAY 16, 2019 (THURSDAY)

8:30 – 9:00

Registration and welcome coffee

9:00 – 9:15

Introductory Remarks
Klaus Regling, Managing Director – European Stability Mechanism

José Darío Uribe, Executive President – Latin American Reserve Fund

9:15 – 12:30

Academic Session 1: Diagnose current global sovereign risks
Chair: Hoe Ee Khor, Chief Economist – ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office

9:15 – 9:45

Galina Hale, Research Advisor – Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
The euro crisis in the mirror of the European Monetary System

9:45 – 10:15

Ilhyock Shim, Head of Economics and Financial Markets for Asia and the Pacific – Bank for International Settlements
Financial stress in lender countries and capital outflows from emerging market economies

10:15 – 10:45

Coffee break

10:45 – 11:15

Moritz Kraemer, Chief Economic Advisor – Acreditus
Why sovereigns default?

11:15 – 11:45

Discussant: Gong Cheng, Senior Economist – European Stability Mechanism

11:45 – 12:30

Q&A

12:30 – 14:00

Photo Session and Lunch

14:00 – 17:15

Academic Session 2: How to shape effective risk detection tools?
Chair: Nicola Giammarioli, Head of Strategy and Institutional Relations – European Stability Mechanism

14:00 – 14:30

Phakawa Jeasakul and Romain Lafarguette, Economists – International Monetary Fund
Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance

14:30 – 15:00

Jan Hannes Lang, Financial Stability Expert – European Central Bank
Anticipating the bust: a new cyclical systemic risk indicator to assess the likelihood and severity of financial crises

15:00 – 15:15

Coffee break

15:15 – 15:45

Li Lian Ong, Group Head Financial Surveillance – ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office
The ERPD Matrix Scorecard and ARTEMIS

15:45 – 16:15

Discussant: Dennis Essers, Economist – National Bank of Belgium

16:15 – 17:00

Q&A

17:00 – 17:15

Closing Keynote
Randall Henning, Professor at the School of International Service – American University

MAY 17, 2019 (FRIDAY)

9:00 – 9:30

Arrival and welcome coffee

9:30 – 10:00

Keynote speech
Erik Berglöf, Director of the Institute of Global Affairs – London School of Economics

10:00 – 12:15

Roundtable: Are the Global Financial Safety Net and crisis management institutions prepared
to early detect risks and fight against the next crisis? Chair: Rolf Strauch, Chief Economist – European Stability Mechanism PetyaDiscussants: Koeva Brooks, Deputy Director, Strategy, Policy, and Review Department – International Monetary FundCarlos Giraldo, Chief Economist – Latin American Reserve Fund Barbara Fritz, Professor at the Institute for
Latin American Studies / School of Business & Economics – Freie Universität BerlinMasahiro Kawai, Professor – University of TokyoBenoît Mojon, Head of Economic Analysis – Bank for International SettlementsHeinz Scherrer, Head of Unit, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs – European CommissionEvgeny Y. Vinokurov, Chief Economist – Eurasian Fund for Stabilisation and Development

12:15 – 12:20

Closing Remarks
Yasuto Watanabe, Deputy Director – ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office