A Not-So-Good Morning in Baltimore: What Does Its Port Closure Mean for ASEAN+3 Trade and Supply Chains?

Using the IMF-University of Oxford University PortWatch spillover simulator to analyze the impact of the Baltimore accident on ASEAN+3 trade, the note shows that immediate, direct repercussions for the ASEAN+3 region are small, as is the impact on its network of supply chains.

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ASEAN+3: Navigating Secular Trends and Uncertainties

While the ASEAN+3 region will remain a major driver of global growth in the next decade, it also faces a multitude of structural challenges. Three secular trends—aging, global trade reconfiguration, and rapid technological change—are affecting the region in complex ways that make its long-term growth trajectory less certain.

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ASEAN+3 Policymakers Should Rebuild Policy Space and Address Long-term Challenges Amid Positive Outlook

The ASEAN region is expected to benefit from a combination of these favorable factors, with growth in 2024 and 2025 forecast at 4.8 and 4.9 percent, respectively while growth in the Plus-3 region is expected to remain robust at 4.3 and 4.1 percent, respectively.

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How are ASEAN and China Leveraging Their Positions in Global Value Chains?

This note shows that an economy needs to retain more GVC stages to support the development of domestic firms and increase domestic value-added, and that it should move toward more upstream positions in GVCs to capture a larger share of value-added.

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