ASEAN+3 Financial Forum (ATFF) 2018: Voyage in Growing Uncertainties

The 3rd ASEAN+3 Financial Forum (ATFF) with the theme of “Voyage in Growing Uncertainties” will be held back to back with the ASEAN+3 Finance and Central Bank Deputies’ Meeting (AFCDM+3) in Busan, Korea, on December 12, 2018.

Hosted by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO), the full-day program will focus on how ASEAN+3 members continue to sustain growth and stability in the face of growing uncertainties, including the global trade issues and tightening financial conditions. In this context, the forum will also discuss the future of ASEAN+3 regional financial cooperation, with a focus on enhancing the regional financing arrangement – the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation (CMIM) – and its contribution to the global financial safety net. Speakers and discussants include high-level policy makers, renowned academics and economists who have strong background and experience on both regional and global issues.

AMRO Director Dr. Junhong Chang will deliver welcome remarks. In their capacity as the Co-chairs of AMRO Executive Committee in 2018, Mr. Weon-Kyoung JO, Director General for G20, IMF and ASEAN+3, International Finance Bureau, Ministry of Economy and Finance, Korea, and Mr Ping Yi Yee, Deputy Secretary (Planning) of Ministry of Finance of Singapore, will deliver keynote addresses at the forum.

Dr. Hoe Ee Khor, AMRO Chief Economist, will facilitate the first panel discussion on “Asia-Sustaining Growth and Stability in the Face of Uncertainties.” Professor Kyung Wook Hur, Former AMRO Advisory Panel Member, will moderate the second panel discussion on “Managing Financial Globalization: Policy Responses and Strengthening of Regional Financial Safety Nets.” Dr. Jae-Soo Yoo, Vice Mayor for Economic Affairs of Busan Metropolitan City, will deliver a luncheon speech on “Lunchtable Economics on Financial Crisis: Are we ready to face another financial crisis?”

Inaugurated in 2016, the ATFF acts as a flagship platform for ASEAN+3 Deputies, academics and high-level representatives of international financial institutions to brainstorm on major issues related to regional economic and financial cooperation.

The event is by invitation only.

Program

Time
Program

9:00 am-9:30 am

Registration

Master of Ceremony:

Mr. Byungseo YOO, Deputy Director of AMRO

9:30 am-9:40 am

Welcome Remark
• Dr. Junhong CHANG, AMRO Director

9:40 am-10:00 am

Keynote Address
• Mr. Weon-Kyoung JO, Director General for G20, IMF and ASEAN+3, International Finance Bureau, Ministry of Economy and Finance, Korea

• Mr. Ping Yi YEE, Deputy Secretary (Planning), Ministry of Finance, Singapore

10:00 am-10:15 am

Group Photo Session and Coffee Break

Panel 1: Asia – Sustaining Growth and Stability in the Face of Uncertainties

10:15 am-12:15 pm

The ASEAN+3 region is currently the fastest growing and amongst the most dynamic regions in the world. However, the economic outlook is clouded by near-term challenges of trade protectionism and tightening financial conditions. U.S. trade protectionist actions targeted at China have adversely affected the whole region through effects on global value chains and investment prospects and shaken the multilateral rules-based trading system. At the same time, tightening global financial conditions led by U.S. monetary policy normalisation will narrow the policy space for regional economies. In addition to these external challenges, economies face ongoing domestic structural challenges. These include reskilling the labor force and creating employment in the face of challenges posed by automation and digital technology for both developed and developing economies; and moving up the economic value chain and technology ladder for middle-income economies.
Looking ahead to year 2019:

• How can the region best cooperate to respond to U.S. trade protectionism and to preserve the multilateral rules-based trading system?

• With tightening global financial conditions, how can policymakers best use the shrinking policy space to maintain financial stability?

• How can policy best support the adjustment in our economies to disruptive changes brought about by digital technology and automation?

Moderator: Dr. Hoe Ee KHOR, Chief Economist, AMRO

Introductory Presentation: Dr. Hoe Ee KHOR, Chief Economist, AMRO

Panel Speakers:

1. Dr. Changyong RHEE, Director of Asia Pacific Department, IMF

2. Dr. Joseph E. ZVEGLICH Jr., Deputy Chief Economist, Asian Development Bank

3. Prof. Suahasil NAZARA, Chairman, Fiscal Policy Agency, Ministry of Finance, Indonesia

4. Dr. Akira ARIYOSHI, AMRO’s Advisory Panel Member from 2015 and Former Professor, School of International and Public Policy, Hitotsubashi University

5. Mr. Marzunisham Bin OMAR, Assistant Governor, Bank Negara Malaysia

6. Mr. Diwa C. GUINIGUNDO, Deputy Governor, Monetary and Economics Sector, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

Luncheon Speech: Lunchtable Economics on Financial Crisis: Are we ready to face another financial crisis?

12:20 pm-13:30 pm

Moderator:
– Mr. Byungseo YOO, Deputy Director of AMRO

Keynote speech:

– Dr. Jae-Soo YOO, Vice Mayor for Economic Affairs, Busan Metropolitan City

Panel 2: Managing Financial Globalization: Policy Responses and Strengthening of Regional Financial Safety Nets

13:30 pm-15:30 pm

During the last decade, ASEAN+3 members have put concerted efforts to improve the size, scope, and capabilities of CMIM to support financial stability of this region; while CMIM is firmly in a position that is supportive of the global financial system. Still, alarm bells have been sounding for this region as well as some countries in other region in 2018. The uncertainties persist out of the fallout from US Fed’s rate hike, trade war and turbulent capital market. We have such ever-present concerns of financial crises mainly in the context of rising capital flows – the risk of incidence of sudden stops and the amount of output losses have not changed greatly since 1990s up to now. This has been precipitated by the heightened financial interconnectedness, which has increased the likelihood of risks being transmitted into domestic economies, e.g. through excessive credit growth. There is no substitute for a strong financial safety net to support for financial stability in the region.
In this session, we would like to brainstorm about the future of Regional Financial Cooperation in the region, while focussing on possible evolution path of the CMIM in the future, as well as promoting local currency usage in the region. Possibly, we can also discuss coordination among ASEAN+3 initiatives, and expansion of their scope.

Moderator: Professor Kyung Wook HUR, Former 1st Vice Minister of Strategy and Finance, and Former Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Korea to OECD (Paris) and Former AMRO Advisory Panel Member

Introductory Presentation: Possible evolution path of the CMIM in the future: Mr. Yasuto WATANABE, Deputy Director, AMRO

Panel Speakers

1. Dr. Muhamad Chatib BASRI, Former Minister of Finance, Indonesia

2. Dr. Yoichi NEMOTO, Professor, School of International and Public Policy, Hitotsubashi University

3. Prof. Hiroyuki ITO, Portland State University, USA

4. Dr. Petya Koeva BROOKS, Deputy Director, Strategy, Policy and Review Department, IMF

5. Dr. Mark SOBEL, US Chairman, OMFIF

6. Mr. Marc UZAN, Executive Director, Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee

9:00 am-9:30 am Registration
Master of Ceremony: Mr. Byungseo YOO, Deputy Director of AMRO
9:30 am-9:40 am Welcome Remark
• Dr. Junhong CHANG, AMRO Director

9:40 am-10:00 am Keynote Address
• Mr. Weon-Kyoung JO, Director General for G20, IMF and ASEAN+3, International Finance Bureau, Ministry of Economy and Finance, Korea

• Mr. Ping Yi YEE, Deputy Secretary (Planning), Ministry of Finance, Singapore

10:00 am-10:15 am Group Photo Session and Coffee Break
Panel 1: Asia – Sustaining Growth and Stability in the Face of Uncertainties
10:15 am-12:15 pm The ASEAN+3 region is currently the fastest growing and amongst the most dynamic regions in the world. However, the economic outlook is clouded by near-term challenges of trade protectionism and tightening financial conditions. U.S. trade protectionist actions targeted at China have adversely affected the whole region through effects on global value chains and investment prospects and shaken the multilateral rules-based trading system. At the same time, tightening global financial conditions led by U.S. monetary policy normalisation will narrow the policy space for regional economies. In addition to these external challenges, economies face ongoing domestic structural challenges. These include reskilling the labor force and creating employment in the face of challenges posed by automation and digital technology for both developed and developing economies; and moving up the economic value chain and technology ladder for middle-income economies.
Looking ahead to year 2019:

• How can the region best cooperate to respond to U.S. trade protectionism and to preserve the multilateral rules-based trading system?

• With tightening global financial conditions, how can policymakers best use the shrinking policy space to maintain financial stability?

• How can policy best support the adjustment in our economies to disruptive changes brought about by digital technology and automation?

Moderator: Dr. Hoe Ee KHOR, Chief Economist, AMRO

Introductory Presentation: Dr. Hoe Ee KHOR, Chief Economist, AMRO

Panel Speakers:

1. Dr. Changyong RHEE, Director of Asia Pacific Department, IMF

2. Dr. Joseph E. ZVEGLICH Jr., Deputy Chief Economist, Asian Development Bank

3. Prof. Suahasil NAZARA, Chairman, Fiscal Policy Agency, Ministry of Finance, Indonesia

4. Dr. Akira ARIYOSHI, AMRO’s Advisory Panel Member from 2015 and Former Professor, School of International and Public Policy, Hitotsubashi University

5. Mr. Marzunisham Bin OMAR, Assistant Governor, Bank Negara Malaysia

6. Mr. Diwa C. GUINIGUNDO, Deputy Governor, Monetary and Economics Sector, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

Luncheon Speech: Lunchtable Economics on Financial Crisis: Are we ready to face another financial crisis?
12:20 pm-13:30 pm Moderator:
– Mr. Byungseo YOO, Deputy Director of AMRO

Keynote speech:

– Dr. Jae-Soo YOO, Vice Mayor for Economic Affairs, Busan Metropolitan City

Panel 2: Managing Financial Globalization: Policy Responses and Strengthening of Regional Financial Safety Nets
13:30 pm-15:30 pm During the last decade, ASEAN+3 members have put concerted efforts to improve the size, scope, and capabilities of CMIM to support financial stability of this region; while CMIM is firmly in a position that is supportive of the global financial system. Still, alarm bells have been sounding for this region as well as some countries in other region in 2018. The uncertainties persist out of the fallout from US Fed’s rate hike, trade war and turbulent capital market. We have such ever-present concerns of financial crises mainly in the context of rising capital flows – the risk of incidence of sudden stops and the amount of output losses have not changed greatly since 1990s up to now. This has been precipitated by the heightened financial interconnectedness, which has increased the likelihood of risks being transmitted into domestic economies, e.g. through excessive credit growth. There is no substitute for a strong financial safety net to support for financial stability in the region.
In this session, we would like to brainstorm about the future of Regional Financial Cooperation in the region, while focussing on possible evolution path of the CMIM in the future, as well as promoting local currency usage in the region. Possibly, we can also discuss coordination among ASEAN+3 initiatives, and expansion of their scope.

Moderator: Professor Kyung Wook HUR, Former 1st Vice Minister of Strategy and Finance, and Former Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Korea to OECD (Paris) and Former AMRO Advisory Panel Member

Introductory Presentation: Possible evolution path of the CMIM in the future: Mr. Yasuto WATANABE, Deputy Director, AMRO

Panel Speakers

1. Dr. Muhamad Chatib BASRI, Former Minister of Finance, Indonesia

2. Dr. Yoichi NEMOTO, Professor, School of International and Public Policy, Hitotsubashi University

3. Prof. Hiroyuki ITO, Portland State University, USA

4. Dr. Petya Koeva BROOKS, Deputy Director, Strategy, Policy and Review Department, IMF

5. Dr. Mark SOBEL, US Chairman, OMFIF

6. Mr. Marc UZAN, Executive Director, Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee

15:30 pm-15:40 pm

Concluding Remark: Dr. Mohamad IKHSAN, the Chair of AMRO Advisory Panel, Advisor to the Vice President of the Republic of Indonesia

Speakers

Mr. Byungseo YOO

Deputy Director of AMRO

Dr. Junhong CHANG

AMRO Director

Mr. Weon-Kyoung JO

Director General for G20, IMF and ASEAN+3, International Finance Bureau, Ministry of Economy

Mr. Ping Yi YEE

Deputy Secretary (Planning), Ministry of Finance, Singapore

Dr. Hoe Ee KHOR

Chief Economist, AMRO

Dr. Changyong RHEE

Director of Asia Pacific Department, IMF

Dr. Joseph E. ZVEGLICH Jr.

Deputy Chief Economist, Asian Development Bank

Prof. Suahasil NAZARA

Chairman, Fiscal Policy Agency, Ministry of Finance, Indonesia

Dr. Akira ARIYOSHI

AMRO’s Advisory Panel Member from 2015 and Former Professor, School of International and Public Policy, Hitotsubashi University

Mr. Marzunisham Bin OMAR

Assistant Governor, Bank Negara Malaysia

Mr. Diwa C. GUINIGUNDO

Deputy Governor, Monetary and Economics Sector, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

Mr. Byungseo YOO

Deputy Director of AMRO

Dr. Jae-Soo YOO

Vice Mayor for Economic Affairs, Busan Metropolitan City

Professor Kyung Wook HUR

Former 1st Vice Minister of Strategy and Finance, and Former Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Korea to OECD (Paris) and Former AMRO Advisory Panel Member

Mr. Yasuto WATANABE

Deputy Director, AMRO

Dr. Muhamad Chatib BASRI

Former Minister of Finance, Indonesia

Dr. Yoichi NEMOTO

Professor, School of International and Public Policy, Hitotsubashi University

Prof. Hiroyuki ITO

Portland State University, USA

Dr. Petya Koeva BROOKS

Deputy Director, Strategy, Policy and Review Department, IMF

Dr. Mark SOBEL

US Chairman, OMFIF

Mr. Marc UZAN

Executive Director, Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee

Dr. Mohamad IKHSAN

Chair of AMRO Advisory Panel, Advisor to the Vice President of the Republic of Indonesia

Photos