How does AMRO conduct macroeconomic surveillance?

Macroeconomic surveillance of member economies is one of AMRO’s core functions. Its objective is to identify risks to economic growth and financial stability with a focus on inflation, balance of payments, and the financial sector; and prescribe policies to address those risks. AMRO's surveillance framework comprises four interconnected areas of work:

• Enhancing the policy review framework;
• Undertaking country surveillance;
• Undertaking regional, financial and fiscal surveillance; and
• Conducting thematic studies and research.

Country Surveillance

AMRO broadened the scope of its Annual Consultation Visits (ACVs) to member economies. It integrates regional, country, and functional surveillance through the participation of regional economists, as well as financial and fiscal specialists in country missions, such as ACVs and interim visits in order to derive greater synergy. AMRO’s country surveillance comprises two major functions:

• Monitoring, assessing, and reporting to members on their macroeconomic status and soundness; and
• Identifying macroeconomic and financial risks and vulnerabilities and assisting members in the timely formulation of policy recommendations to mitigate such risks.

Regional Surveillance

Regional surveillance identifies the broader global and regional trends that may have spillover effects on the ASEAN+3 region, and on specific sectors. This feeds into AMRO’s annual flagship report, the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO).

Financial Surveillance

AMRO develops tools and frameworks to analyze financial markets and examine vulnerabilities of the banking sector in ASEAN+3. It launched its second flagship report, the ASEAN+3 Financial Stability Report (AFSR) in 2023. The AFSR is the region’s pioneering financial stability report. By delving into conjunctural market developments and potential risks in the ASEAN+3 region, the report provides an in-depth and thematic analysis of the impact of high debt on financial stability.

Fiscal Surveillance

AMRO continues to enhance its core fiscal assessment toolkits, including an expanded fiscal stance assessment framework and a new fiscal space assessment framework. It also continues to update the fiscal database regularly and upgrade the fiscal dashboard. To support bilateral country surveillance, AMRO holds in-depth fiscal policy discussion sessions before country missions, and develops country report templates for debt sustainability analysis. In addition, it delivers TA on key fiscal issues to select member authorities.

Thematic Studies and Research

AMRO economists also conduct in depth studies, which are related to structural issues specific to each economy, and address challenges that member economies may face.