Conference on “Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Developing Economies for Navigating Fragmentation Risks”

Events

Date & Time:

July 28-29, 2026 | Singapore

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) and AMRO held the Conference on “Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Developing Economies for Navigating Fragmentation Risks” in Singapore on July 28-29, 2026. The conference examined how emerging and developing economies can adapt fiscal and monetary frameworks to navigate intensifying fragmentation while safeguarding macroeconomic stability and fostering resilient growth. Twelve papers were presented across five sessions, alongside two keynote addresses. Papers presented at the conference will also be considered for publication in a special issue of the Journal of International Money and Finance (JIMF) following a fast-track review process.

Program

Time

Program

DAY 1 – JULY 28

* All times are in Singapore time (GMT+8)

8:30 am – 8:35 am

Welcome Remarks

Abdurohman, Deputy Director,AMRO

8:35 am – 9:05 am

Keynote Speech: When is Currency Volatility Excessive? The Practice of Integrated Policy Frameworks in Asia

Dong He, Chief Economist, AMRO

9:05 am – 9:25 am

Open Discussion

9:25 am – 9:30 am

Group photo

9:30 am – 9:40 am

Break

Session 1

Chair: John Beirne, Principal Economist, Asian Development Bank (ADB)

9:40 am – 10:05 am

Paper 1: Divide and Indebt – How Geoeconomic Fragmentation Affects Macro-Fiscal Stability

Ervin Prifti, Economist, International Monetary Fund

10:05 am – 10:15 am

Discussant:

Hwee Kwan Chow, Professor, Singapore Management University

10:15 am – 10:30 am

Open Discussion

10:30 am – 10:55 am

Paper 2: Macroeconomic Outcomes Under Alternative Fiscal and Monetary Policy Stances: Evidence from the NEXUS Model

Aruhan Rui Shi, Associate Economist, AMRO

10:55 am – 11:05 am

Discussant:

Yang Jiao, Assistant Professor, Singapore Management University

11:05 am – 11:20 am

Open Discussion

11:20 am – 11:45 am

Paper 3: EME policy responses to U.S. monetary policy surprises: the role of financial channels of the exchange rate

Mikael Juselius, Senior Economist, Bank for International Settlements

11:45 am – 11:55 am

Virtual Discussant:

Anella Munro, Visiting Professor, Asia School of Business

11:55 am – 12:10 pm

Open Discussion

12:10 pm – 1:30 pm

Lunch break

Session 2

Chair: Donghyun Park, Director, The SEACEN Centre

1:40 pm – 2:05 pm

Paper 4: Inflation Dynamics under Global Supply Chain Disruptions in a Small Open Economy: The Role of Trade Vulnerability, Shock Volatility, and Monetary Policy Stance

Sekar Utami Setiastuti, Economist, AMRO

2:05 pm – 2:15 pm

Discussant:

Wai Mun Chia, Associate Professor, Nanyang Technological University

2:15 pm – 2:30 pm

Open Discussion

2:30 pm – 2:55 pm

Paper 5: Global fragmentation, fiscal policy, and economic growth: a cross-country analysis

Gazi Salah Uddin, Full Professor, Linköping University, Sweden

2:55 pm – 3:05 pm

Discussant:

Takeki Sunakawa, Professor, Hitotsubashi University

3:05 pm – 3:20 pm

Open Discussion

3:20 pm – 3:40 pm

Break

Session 3

Chair: Jerry Huang, Deputy Group Head and Senior Economist, AMRO

3:45 pm – 4:10 pm

Paper 6: The Fiscal Effectiveness Corridor: Geopolitical Risk Thresholds, State-Dependent Multipliers, and Policy Trade-offs in Emerging Asian Economies

Avik Ghosh, Assistant General Manager, Reserve Bank of India

4:10 pm – 4:20 pm

Discussant:

Ozer Karagedikli, Professor, Asia School of Business

4:20 pm – 4:35 pm

Open Discussion

4:35 pm – 5:00 pm

Paper 7: Monetary Policy Effectiveness in a Fragmented World: The Role of Institutions, Fiscal Vulnerabilities, and Exchange Rate Regimes

Joao Jalles, Professor, University of Lisbon

5:00 pm – 5:10 pm

Discussant:

Nur Ain Shahrier, Senior Economist, The SEACEN Centre

5:10 pm – 5:25 pm

Open Discussion

DAY 2 – JULY 29

9:25 am – 9:30 am

Welcome Remarks

John Beirne, Principal Economist, ADB

9:30 am – 10:00 am

Keynote Speech: Comparative Advantage and Openness under Global Fragmentation: Lessons from the Past 65 Years

Joshua Aizenman, Dockson Chair in Economics and International Relations, University of Southern California
Jamel Saadaoui (virtual), Full Professor, Paris 8 University
Hiroyuki Ito (virtual), Professor, Portland State University

10:00 am – 10:20 am

Open Discussion

10:20 am – 10:35 am

Break

Session 4

Chair: Allen Ng, Group Head and Lead Economist, AMRO

10:40 am – 11:05 am

Paper 8: Tariff News Shock and Dollar Safety

Huanhuan Zheng, Associate Professor, City University of Hong Kong

11:05 am – 11:15 am

Discussant:

Dora Xia, Deputy Group Head and Principal Economist, AMRO

11:15 am – 11:30 am

Open Discussion

11:30 am – 11:55 am

Paper 9: Economic Uncertainty and Extreme Capital Flow Movement

Yang Zhou, Lecturer, Nagoya City University

11:55 am – 12:05 pm

Discussant:

Jongrim Ha, Senior Economist, AMRO

12:05 pm – 12:20 pm

Open Discussion

12:20 pm – 2:00 pm

Lunch Break

Session 5

Chair: Pilipinas Quising, Principal Economics Officer, ADB

2:00 pm – 2:25 pm

Paper 10: International Transmission of Global Confidence Shocks

Inhwan So, Assistant Professor, Hongik University

2:25 pm – 2:35 pm

Discussant:

Donghai Zhang, Assistant Professor, National University of Singapore

2:35 pm – 2:50 pm

Open Discussion

2:50 pm – 3:15 pm

Paper 11: Monetary Policy and Banking Crises: The Role of Geopolitical Risk and Financial Vulnerabilities

Bilge Karataş, Assistant Professor, Utrecht University

3:15 pm – 3:25 pm

Discussant:

Ivan Lim, Economist, AMRO

3:25 pm – 3:40 pm

Open Discussion

3:40 pm – 3:55 pm

Break

4:00 pm – 4:25 pm

Paper 12: Primary Balance, Debt Composition, and Sovereign Yields in Emerging Economies

Abhishek Kumar, Assistant Professor, University of Southampton

4:25 pm – 4:35 pm

Virtual Discussant:

Kasun Pathirage, Deputy Director, Central Bank of Sri Lanka

4:35 pm – 4:50 pm

Open Discussion

4:50 pm – 5:00 pm

Closing Remarks

Allen Ng, AMRO
John Beirne, ADB
Donghyun Park, The SEACEN Centre

Speakers

Abdurohman

Deputy Director, AMRO

Dong He

Chief Economist, AMRO

John Beirne

Principal Economist, Asian Development Bank

Ervin Prifti

Economist, International Monetary Fund

Hwee Kwan Chow

Professor, Singapore Management University

Aruhan Rui Shi

Associate Economist, AMRO

Yang Jiao

Assistant Professor, Singapore Management University

Mikael Juselius

Senior Economist, Bank for International Settlements

Anella Munro

Visiting Professor, Asia School of Business

Donghyun Park

Director, The SEACEN Centre

Sekar Utami Setiastuti

Economist, AMRO

Wai Mun Chia

Associate Professor, Nanyang Technological University

Gazi Salah Uddin

Full Professor, Linköping University, Sweden

Takeki Sunakawa

Professor, Hitotsubashi University

Jerry Huang

Deputy Group Head and Senior Economist, AMRO

Avik Ghosh

Assistant General Manager, Reserve Bank of India

Ozer Karagedikli

Professor, Asia School of Business

Joao Jalles

Professor, University of Lisbon

Nur Ain Shahrier

Senior Economist, The SEACEN Centre

Joshua Aizenman

Dockson Chair in Economics and International Relations, University of Southern California

Jamel Saadaoui

Full Professor, Paris 8 University

Hiroyuki Ito

Professor, Portland State University

Allen Ng

Group Head and Lead Economist, AMRO

Huanhuan Zheng

Associate Professor, City University of Hong Kong

Dora Xia

Deputy Group Head and Principal Economist, AMRO

Yang Zhou

Lecturer, Nagoya City University

Jongrim Ha

Senior Economist, AMRO

Pilipinas Quising

Principal Economics Officer, ADB

Inhwan So

Assistant Professor, Hongik University

Donghai Zhang

Assistant Professor, National University of Singapore

Bilge Karataş

Assistant Professor, Utrecht University

Ivan Lim

Economist, AMRO

Abhishek Kumar

Assistant Professor, University of Southampton

Kasun Pathirage

Deputy Director, Central Bank of Sri Lanka

Photos

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