In the June 2026 interim update of the AREO, AMRO maintains ASEAN+3 growth at 4.0 percent in 2026 as projected in early April, while raising its inflation projection to 1.8 percent from 1.4 percent, reflecting more prolonged disruptions from the Middle East conflict.
The update comes as the conflict enters its fourth month, proving more protracted than earlier expectations of a resolution within two months. Energy, commodity, and logistics costs have surged and remain elevated, while supplies of petroleum products have tightened. Early signs of disruptions have also emerged in industrial inputs, including helium, sulfur, and fertilizers, although broad-based market dislocations have so far been avoided.
