Nowcasting ASEAN+3 Goods Exports: Bridge and Machine Learning Models and Shipping “Big Data”
This paper presents two frameworks for nowcasting export growth across the 14 ASEAN+3 economies.
A Not-So-Good Morning in Baltimore: What Does Its Port Closure Mean for ASEAN+3 Trade and Supply Chains?
Using the IMF-University of Oxford University PortWatch spillover simulator to analyze the impact of the Baltimore accident on ASEAN+3 trade, the note shows that immediate, direct repercussions for the ASEAN+3 region are small, as is the impact on its network of supply chains.
Watch: ASEAN+3 Navigating Tomorrow
Watch the highlights of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook 2024 thematic chapter, Navigating Tomorrow.
Bright Prospects for ASEAN+3 Amid Uncertainty
The ASEAN+3 region remained resilient in a challenging global landscape in 2023.
ASEAN+3: Navigating Secular Trends and Uncertainties
While the ASEAN+3 region will remain a major driver of global growth in the next decade, it also faces a multitude of structural challenges. Three secular trends—aging, global trade reconfiguration, and rapid technological change—are affecting the region in complex ways that make its long-term growth trajectory less certain.
How the US–China Trade Conflict Affected China’s Trading Patterns
The trade conflict between the US and China has led to tit-for-tat tariff increases imposed on a significant portion of their respective exports since it started in 2018.
How are ASEAN and China Leveraging Their Positions in Global Value Chains?
This note shows that an economy needs to retain more GVC stages to support the development of domestic firms and increase domestic value-added, and that it should move toward more upstream positions in GVCs to capture a larger share of value-added.
Chinese Companies Are On the Move – Inland and to Southeast Asia
China’s manufacturing landscape is undergoing a major transformation, driven by rising wages, more stringent environmental regulations, a wider adoption of digital technology and opportunities in overseas markets.
A New Economic-Policy Agenda for Asia
Growth for ASEAN+3 was better than expected in 2023, supported by a turnaround in exports amid robust domestic demand and stabilizing economic activities in China.
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