Boosting ASEAN+3’s Economic Resilience and Recovery During COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to cast a long, dark, and uncertain shadow over the outlook for global growth. Deeply plugged into the global value chain, the ASEAN+3 region, comprising the ten members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus China, Japan, and Korea, has been severely affected. Currently, the region is projected to record negative growth in 2020, a large fall compared to the average growth of around 5% over the past few years.

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The Amended Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation (CMIM) Comes Into Effect on June 23, 2020

The amended Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation (CMIM) Agreement, which is a regional financing arrangement among the Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors of the ASEAN Members States, China, Japan and Korea (ASEAN+3) and the Monetary Authority of Hong Kong, China, came into effect on June 23, 2020.

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Possible Modality of Local Currency Contribution to East Asia’s Regional Financing Arrangement

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The Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation (CMIM) is a multilateral currency swap arrangement among ASEAN+3 members, which aims to provide financial support to its members facing balance of payments and/ or short-term liquidity difficulties. Each CMIM member is obliged to contribute a certain amount of resources in U.S. dollars to the arrangement, and in return, is entitled to swap its local currency with the U. S. dollar for an amount up to its contribution multiplied by its purchasing multiplier, when in need. To further improve this mechanism, it is necessary to study the feasibility of allowing local currency contributions to the CMIM arrangements.

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Exploring the Plausibility of Local Currency Contribution to East Asia’s Regional Financing Arrangement

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To strengthen macroeconomic and financial stability in the region, ASEAN+3 countries established a regional financing arrangement called the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM) to provide U.S. dollar liquidity through currency swap transactions when members experience balance of payments and/or short-term liquidity difficulties.

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Policies to Promote Local Currency Use in Intra-regional Trade and Investment in East Asia

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Under the Bretton Woods system established in 1944, the U.S. dollar was made the global reserve currency convertible to gold, underlining post war U.S. economic dominance. Even after the Nixon shock that ended US$-gold convertibility and triggered the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in early 1970s, the U.S. dollar has remained the dominant currency for denominating trade and investment globally, including within East Asia.The dominance of the US$ is not just limited to trade and investment between the U.S. and its trading and investment partners, but also in transactions among third parties in which the U.S. is not involved, including within East Asia. For example, in 2017, 66.3% of Thai export to the EU was denominated in US$, a currency that was neither a local currency for the EU or Thailand. Similarly, 58.5% of Thai export to Japan was denominated in US$.

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