In the October 2023 update of the AREO, AMRO forecasts that the ASEAN+3 region will grow by 4.3 percent in 2023, down from July’s projection of 4.6 percent, due mainly to the weaker-than-expected growth in China in the second quarter. The region is expected to expand by 4.5 percent in 2024, as the impact of China’s policy support measures to boost domestic demand materializes more fully.
Inflation in the ASEAN+3 region—excluding Lao PDR and Myanmar—is forecast to moderate to 2.6 percent in 2024, from this year’s estimate of 2.9 percent.
However, the resurgence of global food and energy prices in recent months is sparking concerns of another commodity price spike, with the risk of higher inflation becoming more salient.
Growth in China should gain momentum as domestic activities stabilize and recently announced policy support measures gain traction.
“Despite the gloomy headlines surrounding China’s economic performance, we must view things in perspective. Beyond the real estate sector, manufacturing investment is holding up and consumer spending is starting to get back on track—these should have positive spillover effects across the rest of ASEAN+3.”
Hoe Ee Khor
AMRO Chief Economist
Press Briefing: ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook - October 2023 Update
Watch: ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook - October 2023 Update
