In the July 2023 update of the AREO, AMRO projects the ASEAN+3 region to grow by 4.6 percent in 2023, up from 3.2 percent in 2022. Although the ongoing weakness in global trade has prompted a slight reduction in the ASEAN growth forecast for 2023 to 4.5 percent from April’s projection of 4.9 percent, this will be offset by improving prospects in the Plus-3 economies.
AMRO revised its 2023 inflation forecast for the region—excluding Lao PDR and Myanmar—to 3.0 percent, slightly lower than its previous forecast of 3.4 percent.
Growth is expected to ease slightly to 4.5 percent in 2024 while inflation is projected to moderate further to 2.4 percent.
Downside risks to the growth outlook for the region have, on balance, receded since AREO 2023 launched in April.
“Downside risks to the region’s outlook have receded since April, but we are not out of the woods yet. Heightened financial stress from tighter US monetary policy is a risk that the ASEAN+3 policymakers must continue to guard against.”
Hoe Ee Khor
AMRO Chief Economist
Press Briefing: ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook - July 2023 Update
Highlights: ASEAN+3 Growth Momentum to Remain Intact as Risks Recede
AMRO Chief Economist speaks to ABS-CBN’s Market Edge
