In the January 2024 update of the AREO, AMRO maintained its 2024 growth forecast of 4.5% for the ASEAN+3 region. Strong domestic demand amid moderating inflation and continuing improvement in trade will propel growth, despite uncertainties surrounding the global outlook.
The ASEAN+3 region is forecast to end 2023 with a full-year growth of 4.4%, slightly higher than last October’s projection of 4.3 percent. The upward revision reflects the higher growth of 5.2% for China, up from last quarter’s forecast of 5.0%.
Stabilizing industrial and services activities in the Chinese economy are helping to provide additional momentum to the region in 2024, alongside gradual improvement in exports to other key markets.
Price pressures continue to recede across member economies, mirroring the trend in global commodity prices. Inflation in the ASEAN+3 region—excluding Lao PDR and Myanmar—is forecast to moderate to 2.6% this year from an estimated 2.8% for 2023. However, upside risks to inflation remain salient, and core inflation continues to be high in many economies.
