In the January 2026 update of the AREO, AMRO estimates the ASEAN+3 region to have grown by 4.3 percent in 2025, and projects growth to moderate to 4.0 percent in 2026. Inflation is estimated at 0.9 percent in 2025 and projected at 1.2 percent in 2026, remaining below the region’s long-run average.
The growth updates reflect upward revisions of 0.2 percentage points for both years compared with the October 2025 AREO Update. The region’s solid performance in 2025 was underpinned by less severe tariff outcomes than initially expected, resilient technology export growth, strong investment in ASEAN, and accommodative macroeconomic policies.
Risks to the outlook for the region have become more balanced but uncertainty remains elevated. The key concerns are unpredictable US policy, a potential correction in technology demand, and global financial market volatility.
