Cambodia’s growth momentum is expected to moderate in 2026, mainly due to the energy shock. In addition, the continued suspension of cross-border activities is expected to constrain trade, tourism, and labor mobility. While manufacturing is projected to remain resilient, the agricultural and services sectors are likely to weaken due to higher oil and fertilizer prices stemming from the Middle East conflict, which could raise transport costs and erode the purchasing power of households.
Headline CPI inflation is expected to rise to 4.5 percent in 2026 due to high global oil prices, as domestic fuel prices closely track global oil prices, with potentially swift second-round effects on food and core inflation.